Can the UK Really Go Smoke-Free by 2030?

May 12, 2025

It sounds bold, doesn’t it? The UK government has set an ambitious target to be “smoke-free” by 2030 — meaning smoking rates would fall below 5% of the adult population. But with smoking still causing around 76,000 deaths a year, is this really achievable? And how big a role will vaping play in getting us there?

What does "Smoke-Free 2030 UK" actually mean?

“Smoke-free” doesn’t mean zero smokers. The goal is to get smoking rates down to less than 5% — a level where smoking is no longer considered a major public health issue. It’s part of the government’s wider plan to reduce preventable deaths and relieve pressure on the NHS.

Where are we now?

As of 2024, about 13% of UK adults still smoke. That number has dropped steadily over the past decade, but progress has slowed. Among young adults aged 18–34, there’s still a concerning uptake in smoking — especially linked to stress, social situations, and misinformation about vaping.

How vaping fits into the picture

Vaping has been identified by the NHS and Public Health England (now the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities) as a far less harmful alternative to smoking. In fact, vaping is estimated to be at least 95% less harmful than cigarettes because it doesn’t involve combustion or the thousands of toxic chemicals found in tobacco smoke.

Vapes as quit-smoking tools

Used correctly, vapes can be incredibly effective for helping smokers quit. In fact, studies show that people who switch to vaping are more likely to successfully stop smoking compared to those using nicotine patches or gum.

What about the risks?

Vaping isn’t completely risk-free — but it's about harm reduction. The biggest health problems from smoking come from burning tobacco, not nicotine itself. Vaping delivers nicotine without the smoke, making it a less harmful option for adult smokers trying to quit.

The role of new UK vaping laws

In 2024, the UK announced plans to restrict disposable vape flavours and packaging to reduce youth appeal. While this is important to protect young people, there's concern that overly strict laws could push adult smokers away from vaping and back to cigarettes.

Balancing regulation with access

Good laws should strike a balance — stopping underage use while still supporting adult smokers who want to quit. Banning vapes outright or making them too hard to access could backfire, keeping smoking rates higher than they need to be.